Demographic change: How Germany will develop up to 2035

We are getting older and fewer - at least in most German counties. This is the forecast of a study by the CIMA Institute for Regional Economics and the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. Using a reliable calculation model, the researchers have calculated how our population will change by 2035 as a result of births, deaths and immigration and emigration. We explain the most important trends - and how they will affect housing.

The population began to shrink as early as 2002 because there were increasingly more deaths than births. In 2011, the tide turned again: immigration flows were able to compensate for the death surpluses and ensured that the population rose to 83 million people by 2017. According to the study, however, the population will only continue to develop positively until 2024, after which it will shrink by just under one percent compared with 2017 to 82.3 million people.  

However, this does not mean that the population in all German regions will decline by 2035. If you take a closer look, you will see that the development varies greatly from city to city and district to district. Basically, more and more people are moving to the cities, while the population in rural areas is declining. This is particularly true of the rural regions in eastern Germany. At 16.5 percent, Leipzig can expect the largest population increase. The Elbe-Elster district in Brandenburg, on the other hand, can expect the sharpest population decline, at 24.7 percent. Of course, there are also exceptions: Many rural regions in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg can expect population growth, while the population in cities such as Gelsenkirchen is declining.

So what does this mean for the topic of "housing"? Will real estate prices automatically rise in regions with population growth, while those in regions with population decline? There is no general answer to this question. After all, the individual amenities and supply situation of the region also play a major role here. Cities that still have a lot of vacancies can cope better with an increase in population than cities that already have low vacancy rates. "At the same time, construction activity will not suddenly stop even in shrinking regions," predicts Fabian Böttcher, head of the CIMA Institute.

Among other things, this is also related to the aging of the population. "Changes in the composition of the population are almost more important than growth or decline in the total population," explains Böttcher. Accordingly, many regions will soon have fewer and fewer people of working age, but more and more pensioners. For older people, issues such as barrier-free living will then also become increasingly important in terms of the housing situation. That's why more special housing complexes for seniors will be built, especially in regions that are aging rapidly.

It is therefore not uncommon for real estate owners to consider a barrier-free conversion. This not only increases their own living comfort in old age, but can also lead to a significant increase in value in the event of a sale.

Would you like to know how the value of your property will change as a result of a barrier-free conversion? Contact us now. We will be happy to advise you.

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Photo: © Berlin Institute

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